1/17/20 10:47am PST:1/17/20: Here’s a view (SPX monthly chart below) of why I expect extremely strong bullish action in SPX over the next year plus. The last several set ups of a monthly macd bullish crossover, following shortly by exit from a monthly squeeze, has been followed by the periods outlined by the rectangles (the vertical lines link down to the macd event and the squeeze exit event on the lower indicators). I’ve copied over those two rectangles to today’s (this last month’s) set up to show what we might expect if the same general action plays out here: we’d expect price to move to the upper right of these boxes. This kind of information (probabilistic information) gives us edge. We “know” price is “likely” to do this. How do I leverage that? I put on a very cheap (relatively speaking) butterfly into the upper right hand of those rectangles! Specifically I’ve put on an initial position of an SPX call option butterfly for mid January 2021, sell two at 3700, buy one each at 3600 and 3800. That’s a wide fly, because it’s very hard to predict the “exact” price at that time (“if you want to catch a butterfly use a big net”). At this time I’m not going particularly large on this trade, but if as the situation warrants it (pullback set ups in continued intermediate term up trending) I may very well add to it.
10:33am PST: Happy options expiration day traders! Hope some of you are cashing in today; I sure am (sold bull put spreads in SPX and RUT)! The continue ripping strength of this minor 3 wave up continues to build an argument that price is in the minute iii of this move, rather than the minute v. Here’s the up to date view of that “most bullish” model. What’s the significance? The depth of the coming correction. If this most bullish model is correct, we’re looking at an impending minute iv that will correct price about 2-2.5% (to the zone of the prior minuette iv shown on this chart). If the less bullish model is correct, then we get a minor 3 that likely takes price down by 5-7.5% (!!) to the area shown on this chart as the minute ii (but in that less bullish model, see older posts for chart) is a minute iv. So “it matters”. Remember, this isn’t really a question of “which is right”, because the future is not pre-written. It’s a question of what the market does in fact that will end up “selected” the right model. We can’t really predict this. But the evidence keeps pushing the probability of the most bullish model up, by virtue of the increasing momentum (remember, we expect momentum to be highest during the 3 wave of a 5 wave move, not in the 5 wave period).
1/13/20 8:31am PST: The continuing strength of the move up deserves consideration of a more bullish count. Note that 3296 is a key Fibonacci projection and extension level: I’m expecting either minute iv or minor 4 degree down wave action to likely start there, if (when) we see an initial pivot. Expect it in the 3291-3301 range.
1/3/20 8:31am PST: While not fully confirmed, strong indications now that the minor 4 wave down in SPX has initiated. A trade I just put on this morning leverages our Elliott wave knowledge to the maximum. Four wave corrections tend to bottom inside the range of the prior four wave of one lower degree (the iv wave of the 3 up). So I put on an SPX butterfly for two weeks out (Jan 17) using put options, at strikes 3070/3110/3150. The range of the iv wave of the 3 up is in fact 3170 to 3154. I bought 4 such butterflies. My max risk is $600. My max win size is $14000. And if I’m wrong, there’s no reason to let the trade reach the full -$600. Given the edge of “knowing” where this market is likely going, this should be an extremely high +EV trade.
1/2/20 7:14am PST: The minor 3 up continues. While it could turn here and fill this morning’s gap and start the minor 4…I suspect a move up to the my next Fibonacci fitted target at 3294 is more likely. Much better Fibonacci structure to the minor 3 if it completes there, and there are several overlapped 262.8% prior swing extensions at that exact same level. The market this morning is “mixed up”: gold and bonds are up sharply, indicating “risk off” and a flight from equities. But SPX is up and NDX/tech is roaring. RUT however gapped up and now has reversed very hard; that might be the canary in the coal mine here, as RUT is also due for a minor 4 just as SPX is.
12/26/19 9:07pm PST: SPX has decide to turn up off the lower channel line, reconfirming the running bull trend channel. This is pure minor 3 of intermediate 3 of primary 3 action folks, and that means “the high momentum part” of the overall price curve traced out typically by impulsive waves. This impulse started with the late December 2018 low, and is a Cycle 5 wave up. As for this state of this minor 3, it may still be very close to completing, or extending yet again to one of the target areas I’ve marked. Note that the higher I marked as a potential target several weeks ago, the lower, just now. Bottom line: trade long in very short time frames only here! The minor 4 start is around the corner one way or another, don’t hold longs into it.
12/23/2019 6:01pm PST: ALERT!!! The minor 3 up in SPX may be at an end here. Shown below is not SPX, but /ES, which is arguably “the head of the snake” re: the SPX. And it has overnight price action that can help “fill in the picture”. We have been tracking the minor 3 like a hawk, anticipating indications that it is complete. Right now that pivot is set up, for the following key reasons: first, there is a solid impulsive wave count for the minor 3 visible on the /ES (see chart). Second, the price level is exactly at level that results in a high degree of fit of pivots in the minor 3 to the overlaid Fibonacci structure for the move. I projected this level a week ago, and now that price has tagged it the fit is even greater. I will establish a pilot short on the first sign of a break below the most recent tight range (below 3222). Confirmation of the minor 3 complete would come with price breaking the channel line, and price breaking below the minuette iv low. The minor 4 is expected to terminate in the range of the prior minute iv (which isn’t fully shown on the chart below; see prior charts further below for that view).
12/16/2019 8:26am PST: Most current bull count for SP500 (SPX). We are watching carefully for the end of the minor 3! While not show, it appears the minute v is in it’s minuette iii now; perhaps a pause and minuette iv just under the 162% extension price level at 3207, then a final run up to 3237 where I have a Fibonacci projection target. And it could go even higher, but that’s starting to really stretch it I think. Expect the minor 4 to be sideways/down action for on the order of 15 days, and to take price back down to the range of the minute iv just completed. I will be selling overhead call spreads once it starts, and I will be taking some out of the money VIX calls, as VIX is as this moment below 12. With the minor 4, it will go back up over 15 easy.
12/14/2019 7:27pm PST: Here is a monthly chart of SP500 (SPX) going back to 1995. Two indicators are shown: a squeeze indicator (red dots), and a standard MACD. The bullish crossover areas are highlighted with gray ellipses. Note the price action that follows every such crossover. It’s time to be very bullish to the stock market friends, and a time to use high probability sold put spreads to capitalize in a low risk, very high win frequency, and high EV (when put on in phase with the Elliott wave count). A very strong bull market even at the year time frame appears to be launching here.
Here’s the Dow Jones industrial average DJX since 2007, monthly candles. Note that MV trend state (candle coloring) is up, not yet strong up. The MACD as just crossed over. And in this market the monthly squeeze is still on; it hasn’t even released yet. Very bullish indicators.
12/12/2019 6:34pm PST: Here’s the action of the minute v of the minor 3 up so far. I appears there is a minuette v to go. The minor 4 is fast approaching…but probably “nyet”! Note: if price breaks BELOW that red line (the high of what I’ve modeled as the minuette i of the minute v of the minor 3), then most likely the minor 3 is OVER, and the minor 4 is starting up. A very nice, very close invalidation level. So nice and close I took a long off it this morning with a bull debit call spread in SPX, 3150/3155, for expiry next Friday. I may not get to next Friday with it (because the minor 4 is right around the corner), but if this model is correct, I should squeeze out some decent profit as price ascends here for another day or three or five.
12/12/2019 6:34pm PST: Here are SPX targets for the completion of the minor 3. I expect it to be in the range of the two blue dashed lines, and more likely the pivot will be near or at one of the blue lines themselves; they are both a range projection of the top to bottom of the minor 2, projected up from the bottom and top of the minute iv. This is because generally we expect the minute iv to be “about the size of” the minute 2 (though it may be shallower), and reach into the zone of the “four of the lower degree”, which is the minute 4 range here. In addition, my Fibonacci fitted targets just now produced like right at/around these same two levels.
It would appear that selling a bunch of put premium right now is a fair play…but should be taken off the table as this pivot sets up, sometime in the range of 12/20 to 12-31 is my estimate. Then we’ll want to sell call premium over that pivot as the 4 initiates.
12/12/2019 12:10pm PST: I’m quite suspicious that what we thought was a minor 3 complete and a minor 4 initiating was in fact the actual minute iv matching the minute ii on the prior (and this) chart. Now price has accelerated to new all time highs in what I am modeling as a minute v. It could end up short, so don’t expect a big move here before the actual minor 4 kicks in. See the mid-Oct to early Nov sell off to help set general expectation of a coming minor 4. This should the hourly in /ES including overnight data and the bull count proceeding from the end of the minute iv.
12/2/2019 10:08am PST: The minor 4 wave has initiated. The count shown 11/26 appears solid, and a clear 5 wave minute v gave way today (Monday) to an initial A wave down of what should be a minor 4. Expect it to last until mid-next week, to as late as Friday Dec 20 (monthly options expiry).
There’s also this view of /ES (two hour candles including overnight data in gray) showing today’s (Monday 12/2) hit and turn off the active up trend line. Don’t be surprise to see that fall though in the course of a minor 2 here.
11/26 /2019 10:08am PST: Here’s my count of the several month long SPX rally. It’s definitely approaching a completion level and the initiation of a minor 2 back down. The overhead 162% extensions have high potential to be the pivot zone. The blue lines are Fibonacci projections based on the structure of the move itself (rather than an extension of a prior swing). They start at the date I initially did the projection. The next one up is 3171. These represent a zone around the price level, as they highly indicative of higher potential pivot levels, but they are imprecise (they would be better drawn as a 10 point wide shaded zone). Also note the level at which minute v equals minute i, which is quite a bit higher than the 162% extensions. And remember that v waves can often be “shorties”.
11/9/2019 4:35pm PST: The bullish Elliott wave models for the SP500 provided by Lara Iriarte really since the December 2018 low have been spectacularly accurate and consistently bullish, through a time period when all kinds of “pundits” called for bear market renewal over and over. There is zero doubt friends and neighbors that Lara’s work is the best SP500 technical coverage and effectively “prognosis” on the planet. www.elliottwavestockmarket.com, the weekly service is worth every penny as a trader.
Meanwhile…we have SPX extending in an intermediate 3 wave. A run of the Jan-Jun 2019 type may be in development here; we cannot discount that possibility. That said, it is also prudent to project potential pivot levels for a price leg back down to the lower levels of the channel shown below. The price levels map out to 3086-3128. Many technical factors point to this area in both time and price for a turn. The black arrows across the bottom were projected using Fibonacci time projections of prior pivots. Three projections (the most of any cluster) point to this coming week for a price pivot, which clearly would be a high given price at this weekly time frame is going straight up. The center line of the base channel for the overall price move off the end of ’18 lows is being approached, as is the volatility band in purple. There is a strong confluence of Fibonacci projections of prior swings in this price zone. It doesn’t mean a pivot will happen; it means we should be on alert for indications a pivot is forming. And believe and trade any sharp break of key support levels. We also have to be cognizant that sometimes price consolidates right under these levels and never really breaks down before resuming the up trend.
10/20/19 8:27pm PDT: The MVTrend state across the time frames for SPX is not positive; it is a strong note of concern. The monthly id DOWN, the weekly is DOWN, and the daily is NEUTRAL. General behavior of SPX for more than a year now has been very range bound overall. Extreme caution re: a possible drop right back into the range beneath is warranted, even with the very bullish wave count published a few days ago.
10/18/19 8:00am PDT: Here’s an updated “most likely” Elliott wave count for SPX at the daily time frame. Yes, it’s quite bullish in the big picture. This is the work of Lara Iriarte at elliottwavestockmarket.com, and if you want more detail, alternatives, invalidation levels, and weekly or even daily updates, I strongly recommend subscribing to her excellent service.
10/9/19 9:29am PDT: If there’s one thing I’ve learned from trading stocks, it’s that the future is NOT pre-determined. The outcome of the trade talks is wholly indeterminant. But we can consider it probabilistically. So far there have been 13 such attempts, and every one has ended in failure.
That said, a superficial “we agree to keep working” might mollify the market enough to spark a rally. But there is severe risk to the downside right now should the talks be perceived as a failure. The SPX market action is nothing so far but a corrective mess, and corrective messes strongly imply more corrective (downward) price action to come. I urge all readers to be very defensive over the next several days. Yes, maybe (maybe) there’s a sudden buying explosion…but that’s just no the most probably scenario here in my view. Trade safe!
10/3/19 7:43am PDT: There is excellent Fibonacc structure to the overall sell off in SPX on the hourly chart, and the current hourly candle shows a strong reversal. This might be it for this big sell off.
10/2/19 10:18AM PDT: This chart is pretty self-explanatory. I DID get short, but could (and should) have gotten an awful lot MORE short! AND more aggressively pruned off any/all longs.
Also, here are my updated targets for the continuing selling in SPX:
10/1/19 7:04pm PDT: One manufacturering report later and the model shown yesterday…is still “alive”, but any further downward price movement and it’s invalidated. That’s part of EW modeling; they are just models that have a probability of playing out, and many times they don’t.
Here’s a look at larger swings over the last year projected in a symmetric manner from the recent pivot high. This shows potential lengths in both price and time of the this swing in progress. Note that price right now is tracking the slowest such historical (within the last year or so) swing. Which implies that breaking up is probably more likely to end it, as indicated by very weak momentum (it’s not really high here yet, comparatively). On the other hand, we have to be very alert that a major sell off here is possible; “tis the season” as they say, and least year Q4 was a debacle. This year the financial situation and political instability is substantially worse from most perspectives, so…it’s time to be VERY defensive and quite possibly aggressive on the short side. We must have a very nimble posture in the market and be ready to act.
ps: the gray area is where I planted a put butterfly spread in SPY today, expiring next Wednesday. As you can see, I centered it at the 2880 area, and made it somewhat wide. By being far from current market price, that’s doable without alot of additional cost/risk.
9/30/19 12:40pm PDT: Our Elliott wave “most likely” model has the minute iv finally complete, and a minute v launching here. Here’s the hourly view.
9/24/19 7:21pm PDT: Price has hit on the my original target from 9/15 and within that, exactly at my largest Fibonacci fitted target (which overlapped a 161.8% extension). I missed the timing by a lot but price is obviously the more important. Now will this low hold? With the bit of a turn so far I think the odds are high the low is in (but it’s not certainty). Here’s the updated /ES chart, hourly data, overnight sessions in the gray columns.
9//15/19 8:17pm PDT: Here are more refined projections for the ultimate low of the minute iv in progress, Looks like wave a and b ae complete and is to come. This is a four hour /ES chart including overnight data (in the gray zones). The broad gray ellipse is (was) my general target, and iw’ refined things to three more specific targets as shown. These target levels are based on overlaps of Fibonacci fit projections, symmetric projections, 1.27 and 1.62 extensions of the a wave, and the level where a = c. The target levels are 1975, 1965, and 1957.
9//15/19 8:17pm PDT: The pullback called for by our Elliott wave count has started in the Sunday night pre-market session. Here is a revised model showing the likely target zone for this iv wave. The blue dashed lines are symmetric projections. Note that there is potential for a shallower correction (to the 21-23% Fibonacci levels around 2985 which is also the area of several symmetric projections), and for a much deeper correction to the 61.8% around 2900 (also the target of one symmetric projection). My best estimate is the correction bottoms around the 38%, which is about 2945 on /ES, roughly mid-week. I have already deployed a bear SPY spread for Friday expiry to capture profit on this move in progress. I will additionally utilize tactical shorts intra day. Question: can I nail 3 turns zones in price and time (gray ovals) in a row? I nailed the last two. Let’s see!!
9/13/19 11:13am PDT: A properly tuned up /ES bull count here. Nailed the two gray area projections and scored on the latter one with a SPY butterfly. Again, now it’s likely down/sideways time for a day, or two, or five. We watch for a complete iv structure, then get long in line with the higher timeframe trends (up!!).
9/12/19 8:33pm PDT: The (corrected) wave cound from 9/11 posting below, and and a likely end (or soon to end) minor 3 and coming minor 4. So don’t be surprised by 3-6 days of sideways/down action with lots of price overlap.
9/11/19 1:12pm PDT: Just keeps getting better for the bulls! Here’s my up to the minute bullish count at the hourly timeframe for SPX. Lots of opportunities to make money to the long side, in my opinion. Buy the pullbacks as they indicate completion via both detailed Elliott wave count and turns off key Fibonacci and prior pivot levels.
9/8/19 7:57pm PDT: The likely bullish action identified on 8/30 has followed through. MarketState at the weekly time frame has shifted to “up trend”, and it’s time to get heavily long in general. Here’s the very likely wave count. Note the bullish nature re: 3 of 3 type of action. The target for the minute iii wave is show with the upper elipse. Price may form a small degree iv wave on top of the 76-78% Fibonacci levels at/just under current price first, then rise to complete the minute iii. A short term SPX call spread from 2980 to 3040 isn’t a bad idea here.
8/30/19 7:32am: SPX has gapped up on open two days in a row. There are many market bullish indicators. Most likely wave count at this point has SPX initiating 3 of 3 of 3 type of action over the next few days. No guarantee that will happen of course, but that’s the stock market. Note that another view is that this “upper end of the range” price action is an opportunity to go short pending yet another drop down to the bottom (and possibly beyond).
8/28/19 9:29am PDT: SPX may be ready to turn back down off the 76-78% fibo levels shown.
8/26/19 12:10pm PDT: With Friday’s strongly bearish action, SPX has changed tone from a reasonably bullish posture to a reasonably bearish posture for the short and intermediate term, from my perspective. The sharp move back down to the bottom of the multi-week trading range is strongly indicative that “big and smart” money is busy distributing here, driving price up judiciously then using those higher prices to sell off. This is rinsing and repeating. A clear market analogue of this type of action and a demonstration of what tends to follow it can be seen by looking at the market as of Dec 10, 2018, and thereafter. Compare these two charts:
8/21/19 6:21pm PDT: Here’s my working model of the Elliott wave status of /ES (which really leads the SP500). This is hourly data including overnight (the shaded columns). Price is entering a minute 3 of a minor 3 of an intermediate of a primary 5. This model is NOT a prediction. It is an assessment of the most likely future structure. But not a prediction, as anything can (literally) happen, because the future is not fore-ordained. Elliott wave is not some predictive voodoo. It’s alternative models of action to date and therefore expected action to follow, coupled with probability assessment based supporting technical factors and, if you choose, fundamental factors as well (though I choose to stay away from those).
If price escapes the top of the resistance zone (grey rectangle), it will provide strong confirmation that price is following this model. I have to key target areas marked with ellipses. These are targets in both time and price. The Fibonacci groupings provide these, and the symmetric projection of the minute i wave confirms by pointing right to the higher target. Breaking above 2944.25 in /ES is an excellent buy trigger given this 3 of 3 type of Elliott wave set up.
8/20/19 12:20pm PDT: Where’s the down turn/correction here going to end? Here are my Fibonacci fitted ™ targets. The one overlapping the 38% retrace level is also exactly at the broken down trend line, and SPX likes retests of those. So that’s a very likely candidate (marked with the gray ellipse).
8/14/19 8:32pm PDT: Please see the video update on the state of the SPX market.
8/14/19 6:51am PDT: Appears the intermediate 2 wave down is continuing, with more backing and filling type action after yesterday’s powerful up thrust. All retraced over night and price may fall lower, to the 76-78% Fibonacci levels around 2849.
8/13/19 8:11am PDT: BLAST OFF!!! As suggested in the last two night’s status update videos on the SP500, a 2 wave was potentially completing, and we got strong confirmation of that today. I hope you were an aggressive buyer in the first 15 minutes of the market today (I certainly was). We should be looking at some sustained bullish action in general now for a few weeks, most likely. But we always take it day by day.
8/12/19 8:30pm PDT: Here’s another video update on SPX Elliott wave status for Tuesday.
8/11/19 7:05pm PDT: Here’s a quick SPX Elliott wave status update video with key confirming and invalidation levels for Monday, 8/12, don’t miss it!
8/9/19 11:21am PDT: Here’s a revised set of targets for SPX for the bullish model of price being in the early stages of an intermediate 3 up. Look for #1 or #2 to be the end of this minor 1 up.
8/9/19 7:36am PDT: Our bullish count has SPX performing a minute iv correction this morning. However, there is a very significant potential that the intermediate 2 is not complete, and a WXY is in play. It is possible the X is complete and the downward action this morning is initiating a Y down to take price back to the recent lows, and possibly a fair amount deeper. Caution is warranted.
8/8/19 12:42pm PDT: Updated and detailed SPX wave count. Nicely impulsive so far off the lows. Careful as price approaches target 1, that would be a natural place for this market to reverse and initiate a Y down to extend the intermediate 2 into a combination, instead of a completed zigzag.
8/8/19 9:44am PDT: Here are Fibonacci fitted targets for this up swing in SPX (along with the 1.27 extension of the down swing, perfectly aligned with the highest FF target; isn’t Fibonacci structure AWESOME?!!). Still plenty of risk this is an X wave, so careful re: getting and holding longs for “too long”. Monitor the market carefully around each of these target levels for indications of a pivot high and termination of this swing.
8/8/19 7:19am PDT: SPX is giving good bullish signals. That said, there is a very significant possibility price is now in an X wave of an overall WXY intermediate 2 correction (see the alternate count across the bottom).
8/6/19 9:00pm PDT: What’s next for SPX? It’s in a clear down channel. I may be a completed correction…but I’m a bit doubtful. I believe it’s more likely a completed A or W and a B/X up is now in play, then a C/Y down will fire off. But one step at a time. We are watching now for bottom structure to form and the upper channel line to be broken. On aspect that tells me this is a bit less likely to be complete is the turn in “hyperspace”, rather than on or right around a Fibonacci level. However, the futures market /ES did turn “on top of” the 76-78% level, so perhaps Fibonacci structure is okay here for complete intermediate 2 down. But more “bad news” later this week or early next would put the ABC down or WXY down structure very much into play. Also note: there is an alternative wave count that is significant more bearish for the intermediate term; I’ll post that later today.
8/5/19 9:34pm PDT: There were many incremental indicators that a market top in SPX was approaching, then forming, then folding over and a sharp correction initiating. Here’s a list of the most obvious. May they help guide you “next time” if you didn’t properly take advantage of this move to the short side. (Acknowledgement to Lara Iriarte at www.elliottwavestockmarket.com for this rather challenging SPX wave count.)
8/4/19 7:38pm PDT: The SP500 futures market (/ES) overnight is moving down sharply. The key 38.2% level referenced in last weeks alerts is breached. On the chart below are 3 symmetric projections of the prior correction of similar size. An ultimate low of around 2900 is certainly one possibility, as there is lots of previous pivot high support between 2894 and 2911. That target is likely to be the zone price opens at in the morning. If 2894 is broken to the downside, the next target zone is between the smaller of the symmetric moves and the 61.8%: that’s the range from 2867 to 2844. If THAT range is broken through, the next is the 76-78% Fibonacci zone which is precisely where the largest symmetric projection points. This is basically the 2800 level.
Of course there is a probability that this is a larger correction than an intermediate 2 and the 100% retrace level will be broken, but at this time there is no significant evidence supporting that. By far the most significant result here is a turn somewhere in the shadow of the immediately prior intermediate 1 (not show on this chart).
7/31/2019 12:55pm PDT:SPX took a big bounce down (and much but not all of the way back up) today after the Fed announcement just “met expectations” (for a 1/4 pt. rate drop). This is my bullish count for the daily timeframe in SPX. A more bearish count (not shown) would have the intermediate 1 complete, and an intermediate 2 starting up here that could take prices down close to the 2900 level. If the low today gets violated…watch out below. (This chart also shows the positioning of a trade I have on, a SPY butterfly around the price/time area marked with a gray oval).
7/22/19 10:14am PDT: SPX has now triggered to long side, possibly re-initiating motive wave action in line with the higher time frame trends.
7/22/19 7:13am PDT: SPX is now showing at triple bottom, and keeps breaking weaker and weaker down trend lines (showing slowing downward momentum). If the recent pivot high resistance can be broken, and the last (?) down trend line, this market may get some upside action today. But going deeper here is still a possibility of course.