2/20/20 7:19am PST: RUT has moved up strongly since my last update below about 3 weeks ago, but the structure is a “3”, meaning an a-b-c type structure…so far. At the same time, there is high suspicion that SPX and NDX are ready to roll over into intermediate degree corrections (lasting 3-5 weeks). Below is my matching model for this in RUT. Now, this is NOT a prognostication that this is going to happen; this is a ROADMAP informing me what it us IF price begins to fall here and break smaller pivot lows in the move up at a lower timeframe (hourly). I am not shorting RUT yet. But the model is similar to us being in a “self-driving” car, and we have a couple of maps. We are following one map (more bullish action expected in RUT), but IF the car suddenly takes a sharp turn, here’s the new map that the car is probably following.
2/3/20 8:15am PST: The evolving (now complete???) correction in RUT. In a channel, looking for a confirming break out up and out of it. The dark up line is bullish symmetry (a projection of the prior largest up move in this swing down overall). So I’m looking a break of that as well, and I will get rather long RUT. But we may see more downward price action first. Note price came to just above my expect target zone for the bottom of this correction (gray ellipse). It still may get there.
2/2/20 8:42pm PST: RUT in a minor 4 down, and it may be complete if it breaks up and out of this down channel. But watch out for a B or X wave, followed by renewed down in a C or Y.
1/28/20 11:18am PST: Up to date RUT count. RUT is in a minor 4 down, has completed an initial a (or w) wave down, and is now in a b (or x) up.
1/13/20 11:05am PST: RUT now appears to be in a small degree (minuette) triangle, with more movement upward expected on completion.
1/8/20 7:31am PST: The RUT monthly is of course only showing the first week’s worth of data for the month of January. That said, at this point, RUT is exiting nine months of squeeze state (wherein the Bollinger bands at period 21 are inside the Keltner channels at period 15). Squeezes at high time frames indicate pent up energy in the market, and here the squeeze is clearly exited with strong momentum to the upside. In addition, the monthly MACD has executed a bullish crossover above the zero line, a very strong bullish indicator as well (witness what following after the last such cross in August of 2016). And that that set up was also supported by a long squeeze exiting. Our expectation should definitely be for strong bullish action in RUT generally in 2020!
1/2/20 10:00am PST: RUT appears to be close to completing a minuette iv, with a final minuette v up required to complete the overall minor 3. It’s is approaching the broader lower channel line. The overall count is quite consistent with our SPX count. I too profit on a sold call spread just a few minutes ago. I will look to reload that at substantially higher prices in RUT. The highlighted areas show area of fit to the Fibonacci structure shown, which marks the target completion level for the overall minor just under 1700.
12/30/19 6:23pm PST: RUT has broken out of it’s most narrow trading channel, but is still within the broader channel (broader channel shown on chart below for 12/27). Here is /ES with overnight data showing the more recent run up and break of this channel. Is the minor 3 up over? Not clear year. A move up, and back down breaking today’s low will seal that deal for me, however.
12/27/19 10:30am PST: RUT is approaching the end of this minor 3 wave up. It’s now in the minuette iv of the minute v of the minor 3. It is still well within the up channel. Most likely this little turn on 12/26-27 will end up as the minuette iv and the minuette v will take prices up to the level shown here, giving the overall minor 3 excellent Fibonacci structure (marked with gray ellipses). So…perhaps the minor 4 starts on Thursday, Jan 2? That’s my current assessment. Price action will inform us!
12/16/19 11:02am PST: Updated RUT Elliott wave bull count. The green line overhead is the ATH from over a year ago. The blue lines are Fibonacci fitted projections of potential swing completion levels. It’s an awfully bullish picture. SPX is expected to start a minor 4 soon; we’ll see how that resolves relative to RUT’s action, but expect some coordination of consolidation periods.
12/13/19 11:45am PST: Here’s a short term bearish count of RUT that seems a bit more realistic than the hyper-bullish count just below.
12/13/19 10:26am PST: Latest RUT view. While the minuette ii may be complete, it may still leg down a third time before completing.
12/12/19 12:08pm PST: Latest RUT view. Reasonable action tracking my longer term bullish count continues.
12/2/19 11:30pm PST: RUT bull EW count shows a minute ii down initiating. I appears there is only an A down so far; expect more structure (more ranging, and perhaps deeper) before this correction completes, probably in 5-7 days.
11/27/19 10am PST:
This is the bull count for RUT. It indicates a huge bull market in RUT has really just gotten underway. That said, we take it a day at a time. Note that the current daily bar is fully out of the volatility band; I suspect a ii wave of some degree is likely to start up here early next week. The blue lines overhead are Fibonacci projections of the swing underway, levels at which the Fibonacci structure of the swing is “good” (lots of touch points to the key levels should it end at the projection level).
11/13/19 7:00am PST: With a move down out of the base channel, I’m calling a minor 1 up complete here in RUT and a minor 2 down has initiated. The 38% retrace level is the most likely area for this minor 2 low…but of course that a mere estimate.
11/7/19 11:16am PST: Here are projections for RUT based on Fibonacci extensions (127% and 162%) and Fibonacci fitting (blue horizontal lines). The 1650-55 zone has very high fit and the structure for that is in place on the chart to show it.
11/7/19 8:48am PST: RUT my be finished with a minor 1 up, and will do a minor 2 back down that could be a 38%, or even (less likely) a 61.8%. Note: this count could EASILY be wrong due to extensions of waves. Validation of this is needed via channel breaks and pivot lows getting broken. And generally best this strong bull market to not consider any shorting; use the minor 2 as a means of a deep low, highly profitable entry, perhaps using some scaling.
10/17/19 8:48am PDT: RUT is continuing to express itself to the wave count model shown a week ago. Price is (theoretically) in a minor 3 up of an intermediate 3 up of a primary 3 up. Until price actually breaks up and out of this almost one year consolidation range however, this is “likely” (above 50%), but by no means certain.
10/11/19 7:52am PDT: Houston, we have liftoff!!! What appears to have been a very large minor 2 down has now turned clearly to the upside, in what my bullish model calls a minor 3. That said, it’s very possible that in fact there’s “just” more big sideways action coming overall, and this almost year long consolidation range continues. But this is a viable model of it being complete and renewed motive wave action initiating now. We will see.
Note that the low identified in the 10/2 post below, which was also a Fibonacci fitted projection, held. Bingo.
10/3/19 7:45am PDT: The green line is my “go” for getting long RUT here after this selloff.
9/26/19: With the size of this overall downmove in both time and price, a revision to my EW count is required. I think this move is a minor 2, and the move up recently was a complete minor 1 (before I had it as only up to a minute 3, but that now leads to serious proportionality problems). The minor 1 has a minute 3 that is almost exactly the length of the minute 1 (the minute 5 is by far the largest impulse in the minor 1), so I think that’ count is okay. Meanwhile, we are looking for a bottom with clean structure in this minor 2 now. Purple dashed lines are fibonacci fitted projections (and one is right where the double bottom low is now). Dashed down lines are symmetric projections of recent price swing down. I believe my Fibo fit projections more than I do the fibo levels of the prior swing up. But those are there too. A bottom turn will show itself somewhere….
9/26/19: Bullish symmetry was not broken yesterday, and after a 38% move up price has turned back down. That pullback and brought price almost all the way back down. Time to wait for a real bottom to form before considering a long. Patience required here.
9/25/19: Indeed the Y down (see 9/23 post) was NOT complete. Now it appears to be. This hourly chart shows the high degree of Fibonacci fit with the current high-low (gray ellipses). The dark lines show the point where bullish symmetry will be broken (a major signal of a renewed bull trend). Bottom structure here is pretty good, and there’s a neckline just about to be broken (most likely). I’m long…
9/23/19: Latest daily RUT count. Be careful, it’s possible the y isn’t complete. SPX is probably in a B wave up of an ABC iv down, more down expected later this week, this leads me to be suspicious re: the complete state of y. But RUT has been stronger than other markets recently.
9/18/19 8:26pm PDT: A possible completion of the iv wave in RUT with a strong reversal on the hourly and a break of an hourly neckline ot the upside. A buy trigger for more aggressive traders with a stop just below the pivot low, or, wait for further upside price confirmation of bullish action just ahead.
9/18/19 10:29am PDT: I have a target for this down move in RUT, arrived at through Fibonacci fitting. Here it is an a 5 minute chart. 1548 is the target.
9/18/19 8:19am PDT: RUT has broken a 78% Fibonacci level to the downside, along with multiple swing lows, overall a neckline break that takes MarketState for RUT all the way to DOWN TRENDING. I’m short.
9/16/19 8:05pm PDT: Here’s my up to the minute RUT Elliott wave count at the daily and hourly timeframes. Price may very well break up higher here, in which case MarketState moves back to “up trending” and I get long quickly. Otherwise, with falling price, MarketState will shift to topping phase 2 and I’ll be getting short. A little more up to 1600 then down in the minuette iv wave is quite possible. In that situation, I probably get out of my longs at break even…and then get short!
9/10/19 10:40am PDT: RUT continues to track to my bullish EW count. Here’s the latest update at the hourly time frame.
9/9/19 7:51am PDT: I have gotten long RUT on today’s indication that the minuette iv shown below is complete.
9/5/19 8:38am PDT: My bearish RUT model calling for a final y down to complete an intermediate 2 didn’t pan out; the y and intermediate 2 turned out to be complete already. Here’s the model, quite bullish now, going forward. I will look get long very soon now, as I see the minuette iv under way now completing.
9/2/19 9:20pm PDT: Here is my updated RUT Elliott wave count. The structure had clarified, and it appears the 2 down is not complete, with another Y wave down required, as shown here. Note the likely target zones (gray ellipses). which include a wave equality target, 127% and 162% extensions of the prior down swing, and several Fibonacci retracement level of the complete 1 wave up.
8/27/19 8:22am PDT: RUT’s intermediate 2 down looks incomplete. Here’s my up to date wave count. Counting long complex corrections like this is not trivial, and highly subject to revisions. That said, I am generally bearish this market at this point in time.
8/21/19 8:07am PDT: RUT completed it’s minute 2 down and launched it’s minute 3 (of a minor 1 of an intermediate 3) up. I have taken a fresh long. Actually, I took it twice: I took it soon after open, and quickly got a stop a break even, which was hit. Then I’ve reentered after that small-ish pullback completed around a 38% Fibonacci level, and I reentered. I again have a break even stop on as price quickly has risen from that buy point. Here’s the overview wave count chart. UPDATE: out a second time a break even. Will try again!! Obviously, I strive to execute trades with the adage “protect yourself at all times”.
8/20/19 6:46am PDT: RUT appears to have completed a minute i up, and has turned back down in a minute ii. I took a short using September IWM puts at a delta around .85, and am watching my profits grow as RUT sells off in this minute ii. This is Elliott wave trading friends, at it’s short term best.
8/19/19 7:36am PDT: With this mornings very large gap open (again: most likely a continuation gap), a break of the sharp down trend line, and overall a complete structure for a long WXY corrective 2, I’m calling the corrective 2 over. That said, will I be surprised by more sideways corrective action in the coming days? No. But we have to lean on the information we have and right now, it indicates a very bullish posture for RUT. I am long via UWM with a very tight stop just under the lows of the morning, betting the gap will hold. Risk/reward should be excellent on this trade, but risk of stopping is probably at least 50%.
8/18/19 7:09 pm PDT: While we are watching for a set up for shorts in RUT, we have to be wary of of a strong push up which is very possible off this double bottom structure. Here is /RTY hourly with overnight data. If RUT pushes up through all three of the market overhead pivots, it’s time to change our sentiment in this market, and call the correction complete and a new motive wave initiating, with a focus on finding a 2 wave to use to enter long.
8/16/2019 10:25am PDT: RUT has moved up very strongly. In fact, I bought at open, given the strong set up and the strength of the gap open. I’ve sold along the way up. Now it is precisely the down trend line, and it’s turning. Assuming that holds…excellent time for shorts. The stop level is close at hand, and there’s lots of room below for price to fall next week. I put on an IWM broken wing butterfly for Aug 23 at 150/148/147.
8/15/19 11:29am PDT: RUT is tracking to my Elliott wave model very well. I am short with a put options bear spread.
8/14/19 9:38am PDT: What a difference a day makes. Incredible volatile markets. Here’s my updated RUT wave count, including a couple of likely targets for a low.
8/12/19 12:004pm PDT: RUT has clearly following the bearish path laid out last night in provided analysis below. Here’s the updated Eliott wave count, along with likely pause, if not outright completion levels (gray ellipses).
8/12/19 7:39am PDT: The bullish model below in RUT is broken; the minute iv has broken below the level of the pivot high of the minute i, so “that’s a-no good!”.
8/11/19 9:17pm PDT: RUT, like SPX, is at a cusp. Either a 5 wave move is finishing a 4 and 5 should push up (tomorrow!), or a break down implies that the Y down of the intermediate 2 is not complete, an ABC zigzag b wave up is finished, and a c wave down should be taking prices quite a bit deeper.
Here’s the daily view showing the larger count, and the detailed view show both the main and the more bearish (but not FULLY bearish) alternate:
8/9/19 8:49am PDT: The big question in the RUT is whether or not an intermediate 2 down is complete or not (same as with SPX). And whether today’s corrective action is merely a correction in a motive wave launched big time yesterday…or the start of a Y down to finally complete a combination WXY. Can’t really know for certain yet. A solid turn and an MVTrend shift back to “up” at the hourly time frame off the 38% Fibonacci level would be big for the bullish model. Right now hourly trend has dropped to neutral. The chart below is daily candles.
8/9/19 7:41am PDT: RUT is correcting this morning. The turn is exactly off my first Fibonacci fitted target (generated mid-day yesterday).
8/8/19 6:23am PDT: Here are Fibonacci fitted targets for the upswing in RUT (very strong today!!!). Notice the alignment of these targets with key support/resistance in the past, which is strongly confirming of the significance of these targets. Fibonacci magic!
8/8/19 6:23am PDT: RUT is about to trigger long on open with a double bottom structure and neckline break to the upside.
8/6/19 10:57am PDT: RUT is well set up. A buy here or after the neckline break isn’t a bad play. If here, the risk/reward is quite high if the closest swing low is used as a stop. This hourly. I’m using IWM call options myself.
8/6/19 8:46am PDT: Modeling RUT as continuing in a long running intermediate 2 correction is now my primary Elliott wave model for it. It “should be” approaching completion. We will see!
8/5/19 7:13am PDT: Sharp downward movement breaks the prior bullish model, and revised model with a leading diagonal 1 wave and now a 2 down is proposed below. Note the combination alternate count across the bottom.
8/2/19 10:10am PDT: Here’s an updated Elliott wave count for RUT, including a more bearish alternative underneath. The bull case lives…but is on life support?
7/30/2019: RUT appears to have finished another 1-2 sequence and is now deeply nested in about five levels of “3”.
7/25/19 8:35am PDT: RUT is pulling back in subminuette ii wave and should within hours be turning back up for form yet more nested 3 of 3 action (see video below for the overall Elliott wave count).
7/23/19 12:18pm PDT: RUT has now formed a complete inverse head & shoulder’s bottom on the hourly chart, broken the neckline, and is close to breaking the down trend line and the next higher pivot high resistance. A break of the neckline was a good buy; more conservative would be the break of both the trend line and the next pivot resistance line.
7/22/19 8:59am PDT: RUT has tagged and initiated a turn off a 61.8% Fibonacci level, possibly (??) completing a 2 down. I’ve bought .84 delta call options for late August, but will exit with a small loss the moment the low today is violated. I will NOT ride this trade down! Up or out.