(NOTE: real-time updates on SPX and RUT are under the “Markets” tab. Alerts here are focused on individual stocks.)
ALERTS for Thursday 11/14/19
AAPL is starting to show signs of a possible pivot high (see below for the alert from about a week ago). No confirmation yet. But folks, AAPL once it starts selling is likely to see hard, it’s up about 40% in only 100 days! It’s a classic “blow off top” in my view, and while there are no guarantees…it should be a nice short trade once it triggers.
MA has formed excellent bottom structure at the daily time frame. A break above the necklines identified should result in a solid move up, continuing the long term (monthly) up trend.
EXAS has finally reported and price may be turning now after a massive multi month correction that has brought price to a 61.8% retrace level. Look for signs of bullish price movement here, as it would be a very high leverage position should the bottom be in.
ALERTS for Wednesday 11/6/19
AAPL has gone exponential, as in “blow off top” price action. AAPL is awesomely fractal (Fibonacci structure based) at the big picture level. The chart says it all; it’s just reaching a zone of overlapped 127%, 161.2% projections, and a zone of multiple symmetric move projections. The gray ellipse demarks a high potential turn zone. Watch for top structure, then a break to the downside, then (and only then) consider a short. Could be a goot one, mon!! But note the obvious: this is a massively counter-trend trade, and extreme risk management should be deployed.
SBUX has been in a multi-month correction, and still shows excellent overall strength at the monthly time frame. The correction has brought price to a nice cluster of Fibonacci retrace levels (76.4% of a more recent swing low to swing high, overlapped with a 38.2$ of the very large monthly swing low to high). Price is now structuring up a bottom turn. I’ve marked three possible trigger levels for entry. I’ve already taken a very low cost more speculative position: a butterfly for mid December, 85-90-95.
ALERTS for Thursday 10/31/19
QCOM appears to have completed a barrier triangle. I’ve been tracking this one for several weeks. It’s now retesting the triangle. A solid bottom structure on the hourly and a neckline break/trigger to the upside is what we want to look for here.
ALERTS for Wednesday 10/30/19
Lot’s of great set ups. PANW is breaking to the upside, and will confirm a strong bull (wave 3) move underway at > 228. XLNX, DIS, and TGT are all in process of setting up by way of finishing 4 waves. Generally waiting on these for bottom structure and evidence the 4 waves are complete. ABT has triggered and can be taken long in my view. MA is showing very bullish behavior, with two long tail candles on the weekly that bottom on top of the 76-78% retrace level, and a neckline above soon to trigger in long positions. LMT had turned on the daily chart of a 76.4% level and broken a daily candle top ceiling around 377.5, triggering in longs.
Overall, the market is showing signs of a strong bullish period initiating. “We will see” and I strongly encourage an objective eye, and a willingness to “get on it” with more of your bullets than usual when a market starts to indicate a bull trend, then initiates a bull trend. So be ready here, if you haven’t already made significant commitments to the long side.
Always make your own decisions and always always protect yourself with well defined stops!
ALERTS for Tuesday 10/29/19
GOOGL just announced earnings and dropped over 2%. The chart shows a dark cloud cover candle in development for this week, at the position of the top of a massive range. It looks very poised to drop back into range (acknowledging that the broader market looks poised to break upward). So as a small hedge I’ve take a short in GOOGL by selling a call spread for Dec 20 at 1300/1305. Win size is larger than loss size. It is “close” to the price action but obviously above strong resistance.
MCK just announced positive earnings, and I really like the bull side of this market. Here I’ve taken a butterfly for the Nov 15 expiry, 152.5/157.5/162.5. I paid $78 per fly, with a max payout on a pin of over $400 per fly. And my range of profitability is from 153.27 to 161.80, nice and wide (“if you want to catch a butterfly…use a big net!).
ALERTS for Monday 10/28/19
TTWO is breaking back up in alignment with the monthly trend at the daily/weekly level after a nice 38.2% pullback. A neckline was established and is now broken. Any reasonable small pullback could be bought. How to buy is a question: I’m going to sell a put spread under this, as the options for TTWO are quite expensive, so there’s a lot of value in selling premium on it.
LMT is set up to both the long and short side. Price made a massive bullish reversal bar on the daily chart last Tuesday, pivoting off the 76-78% and close by another 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level. All the action since has been inside bars. We are waiting for a CLOSE outside of the range of that candlestick (above green line or below red line). That will trigger me into the direction of the price movement. I’m expecting it to be up, consistent with the very strong monthly/quarterly trend.
ALERTS for Thursday 10/24/19
LULU is in a massive bull run. Is it over? An advisory service just a day ago recommended a short using an overhead bear call spread. I don’t like that trade here and let me explain why. First, the Fibonacci fit of the swing up is quite good with the current high, so there is certainly potential for a pivot back down. However, I expect good fit at most significant support/resistance levels (here there is clear resistance). The next level up that shows good Fibonacci structural fit shown (the upper blue horizontal line). The structure is left in place and the areas of fit are marked with gray ellipses. This indicates another leg up is also a real potential. Next we deploy some symmetric projections of prior upswings within the overall overall multi-week up swing. Every one of the points higher, indicating the current swing up (the fifth overall) is not complete. And three of those four symmetric projections point right at/around the Fibonacci fitted projection for a completion level. Ah, a building body of indicators! That’s what I look for. But it is by no means certain. My play here is to use the symmetric projections to target a very cheap overhead butterfly for Nov expiry. I’ve used 215-217.5-220. Cost to max payout on a pin is 1-10. I like this gamble. Meanwhile, I’ll stay alert for a real short to set up with some top structure, trend line breaks and/or a high momentum down day, and get short and more than cover my ‘fly cost if a down swing initiates.
QCOM may have just completed a large triangle and is on the verge of launching a new impulse up and out of it. MVTrend on monthly is strong up, while the weekly is neutral. The triangle is marked on the weekly chart. I won’t take any long here because there is significant potential that price first visits the lower weekly and/or daily volatility bands (e isn’t over). The trigger levels here and now for long entry are marked (see daily). If it starts to go, I’ll start nursing premium off it with a slightly lower put bull spread (my current preferred weapon of choice) probably for December.
CGC is a cannabis stock that like all such stocks has been selling off hugely for about 6 months. While I haven’t labeled it, it appears to be a very large ABC correction, and the C wave now appears as a very well structured completed impulse down. And it’s completed right at the 76.4% retrace level of the 2017 low to 2918 high. I’ve taken a January bull put spread on it, 17.5/15.
ZEN (see one week ago for a heads up on ZEN then) has been very strong for several years, and has executed a deep pullback. However, the monthly is still only at MVTrend of neutral, and there are strong indications of a bottom at the 61.8%. Hourly shows decent bottom structure and a neckline break. This is a high leverage entry point opportunity: tons of price room above to capture profits on, and a very small and close defined risk level to stop at.
ALERTS for Thursday 10/17/19
12:35pm: PANW has an excellent set up off a large triangle 4. Break of descending trend line on the weekly/daily, and key recent highs present a solid trigger or secondary entry after an initial pilot position. 220 entry or so, and 230 is a skip away. We’ll see; trade at your own risk and always protect yourself via stops.
ZEN has been pulling back on the weekly chart for 13 weeks. It’s bounced very near the 61.8% of the one year long up trend that this pullback is retracing. I’ve marked two possible trigger levels. However, waiting for more bottom structure here to give a greater confirmation that this 61.8% pivot level is likely to hold is not a bad idea. Overall, an excellent set up in development. ZEN reports in just over a week.
ALERTS for Wednesday 10/16/19
MA is in a big daily squeeze and very well set up to rumble to the upside.
BYND is settling/turning on top of it’s overall (entire history) 61.8%. That’s a high leverage set up. It hasn’t triggered well to the long side yet.
XLNX may have completed a very large ABC correction back to a 61.8% level at 92.5. The weekly chart shows two long tailed candles with the tails scribbling over the 61.8%. Here again, a good set up for a long on triggering price action.
ECL continues to set up (see last Friday’s alert below) to the long side. A break of both the over necklines would be extremely bullish.
ALERTS forFriday 10/11/19
ECL is in a huge monthly up trend. It appears to have just completed a small consolidation, with a double bottom structure at the daily time frame off a 61.8% retrace level, and now some upward action and breaking of a down trend line.
ALERTS for Thursday 10/10/19
LMT is reestablishing it’s long term (weekly/monthly) up trend at the hourly and daily time frames. It’s a strong buy in my opinion. I have an open bull put spread on it. In general today looks strongly bullish and there’s a high probability Elliott wave count for the SPX that is very bullish. That all said, of course “bad news” re: China trade talks still could tank this market any time over the next 2 trading days. Bu the FAANG stocks are looking like they are all turning back up. Another break out stock to the upside is MO, which is in a major long term downtrend, but tends to strongly rally when the dividend yield gets to over 8%., which is was just at at it’s lows. MKTX has a huge sell off at the weekly level, and is now resuming it’s ver strong long term up trend.
AMGN has finally broken a neckline; I’ve been anticipating this move for several weeks.
ALERTS for Wednesday 10/9/19
ALGN has finally broken up and out of it’s long sideways (and narrow range) consolidation zone. On a stand along basis, it is a strong buy. Of course, the threat of a trade talk failure on Friday/Monday looms large, and could tank the stock marke, so I would urge caution in general. But ALGN (a new teeth straightening technology products company) might be a bit immune should that happen.
ALERTS for Thursday 10/3/19
MA is nice buy right here and now in my book.
ALERTS for Wednesday 10/2/19
ALGN is hugely off of it’s all time highs back in May. It’s been in a sideways small range consolidation for over 6 weeks. With this market tanking today, it’s not moving, which is a very bullish indicator in my book. A break above the marked neckline should be an excellent buy trigger.
I really like HYG (high yield corporate bond ETF) to the down side right here and now. Consistent stall at a 78% retrace level and now the beginnings of a sharp break to the downside. I’ve purchased December puts with high delta (89’s). This quad chart shows monthly, weekly, daily, hourly clockwise starting at the top left.
ALERTS for Tuesday 10/1/19
Happy Rocktober Traders! Crazy market today, huge reversal in the big averages. Expecting continued choppy action here, I’ve SOLD a call spread ABOVE the market in HON, using Oct 18 calls. I sold a 170, and bought a 172.5. I collect premium and am good as long as HON is at 170 or less at expiry.
ALERTS for Monday 9/30/19
NFLX has formed excellent bottom structure around a 76-78% Fibonacci level and has now broken the neckline of this structure to the upside, an excellent buy trigger. Stop at the overall swing low for about -6.5% risk (and raise it quickly if/as price ascends).
ALERTS for Wednesday 9/25/19
AMZN has sold off and is showing a reversal (hammer) candlestick right at the lower volatility band. This is a good set up for a long. Certainly there is some risk of more downside action. The blue line represent what should be very strong support should that occur. I’ve sold a put credit spread just below that blue support line, 1660-1650 using mid November options.
ALERTS for Tuesday 9/24/19
6:50am PDT: XLP is extremely well set up for a long side trade, particularly given our very bullish intermediate term Elliott wave count in SPX. I’m buying OOM calls (Nov at 62). I think price will be moving up to the 62 level within a few weeks.
ALERTS for Friday 9/20/19
12:26pm PDT: MSFT is overall very strong, broke out to the upside out of a consolidation zone (riding wedge) yesterday, and pulled back today. I am selling Nov puts at 135. If I end up with the stock at a price of 131.5 or so, that’s okay by me. MSFT has a new growing cloud service business that should drive growth for quite some time.
10:50am PDT: TLT (20 year bonds ETF) appears to be very close to completing a B wave up, and C down “should” be starting up. Here’s the weekly chart with the Elliott wave count, and then the daily with more detail. I have taken a pilot short using OOM puts for November, and will build a position if and as TLT starts to move down in a C.
ALERTS for Tuesday 9/17/19
ROKU is one of the hottest issues out there, and executed a significant pull back last week. It’s setting up well to the upside now. A break of the neckline shown is a possible buy trigger.
DXCM is in an uptrend on the monthly timeframe, an the weekly has hit and turned off the 21 ema. There polarity has shifted to “up” on the hourly and daily timeframes. There’s lots of room to run to the upside here. I’ve purchased 170 (out of the money) calls.
MA is set up to the long sie. Nice hit and turn off a 61.8%, and a clear neckline over a bottom structure. The neckline/buy level is 278.75.
GLD has double bottomed at 140, and is looking very good to the long side. I bought a bull call debit spread for mid October, 140/146.
BAND is set up and is a buy above the hourly pivot high at 71.6. TTD is similar, and is a buy above the hourly pivot high at 219.63. AYX, similar, a buy over 120.18. And I think ECL is just an outright buy there.
ALERTS for Thursday 9/12/19
RGEN is setting up well to the long side. Strong up trends at monthly timeframe, pullback to a 38%, and forming bottom structure on it now. Neckline and potential stop buy level show on hourly.
AMGN is set up extremely well, and is a buy above the recent hourly swing high. Chart shown.
ALERTS for Tuesday 9/10/19
SPLK is vastly over sold and hit and has initiated a turn off lower volatility bands. I have sold puts.
ALERTS for Thursday 9/5/19
9/4/19 8:20pm PDT: The overnight e-mini /ES market is up a full percentage point on China trade talk resumption news. This will break price up and out of the large consolidation zone, and into a very strong bullish wave count model. This is the time to get and be long folks. The combination of a sequence of rate cuts starting this month by the Fed and a backdrop of actual talks with an intention to strike a deal (I’d estimate it to complete only after the December rate cut though) could create very bullish conditions for the market for the next four+ months. I’ll publish a wave count update soon under SP500.
ALERTS for Wednesday 9/4/19
9/4/19 12:51pm PDT: GLD should be approaching completion of a + month five wave move up. The green dashed lines are my Fibonacci fitted projections of a pivot high top for this overall move. The start at the point in time when I did the projection. YOu can see that price stalled, then pushed through my first lowest projection. (Actually I had one down around 136 where price stalled earlier but I’ve sinced removed it.) The remains of overhead green lines speak for themselves. Watch for turns at/around these levels.
9/4/19 8:07am PDT: ZYME is well set up to the long side.
9/4/19 7:30am PDT: KEYS is looking strong and breaking to the upside.
ALERTS for Tuesday 9/3/19
9/3/19 8:35am PDT: ATHM is very well set up to the long side. Monthly trend is up. Weekly is neutral with rising pricese. Daily have nice bottom structure and two breaks now of prior swing highs. Also, the weekly is pushing up and through the 21 ema, a rather bullish action. This is a very high volatility stock, with high potential to make some $’s fast. But be aware: it will track the market, so please review my SPX update from last night!
ALERTS for Thursday 8/29/19
8/29/19 9:09am PDT: BLDR (a small cap) has broken the corrective structure it’s been forming for a few weeks with a gap and go to the upside. The longer term charts are extremely bullish.
8/29/19 9:09am PDT: AVGO is in an up trend at the monthly timeframe, and is neutral (but rising) at the weekly. The current break upward is a nice buy trigger for a move up from 284 now to perhaps 292-296.
8/29/19 8:43am PDT: INTC has broken now to the upside after consolidating on top of a major 76-78% Fibonacci retracement level for a few weeks. A buy here with a stop below 44.5 or so is very reasonable. I’m already long. There is potential for INTC here to move from its current price of 47 up to the 50-53 range in short order (next few weeks).
ALERTS for Wednesday 8/28/19
8/28/19 10:14am PDT: Gold (I track GLD, the gold ETF) is obviously in a huge bull market. But price has just hit the combination of the lowest of 3 targets I projected back in mid-July based on Fibonacci fitting of the partial up move in progress, and a 162% extension of a prior upswing. And (yet more!) the upper ascending channel line. So I’m watching for indications of a turn back down here. The horizontal lines mark out the area of the prior 4 wave, which is the typical zone for a pullback. I will consider a butterfly in that area should we get a price break to the downside.
8/28/19 8:47am PDT: AMZN is very well set up to the long side. A confirming neckline price level break is shown in the hourly chart (bottom left). These are as usual monthly, weekly, daily, hour clockwise from top left.
8/28/19 7:21am PDT: EBAY is looking very good to the long side here (though if you are bearish this general market, getting long may not be appropriate).
ALERTS for Tuesday 8/27/19
8/27/19 11:35am PDT: SBUX has more than doubled in a year. The most recent push up is extreme. This is a classic market that is ready for some serious profit taking. The pausing action over the last few weeks certainly represents some distribution. I have put on a cheap unbalanced butterfly ($19 per) using Sept 20 puts. The heart of my profit zone is 90, but I make very good money below 90 (3x my risk, minimum). At 90 I make over 8x my risk. I like this play. I will also put on a put debit spread. Someone suggested a October 95/85 put spread, and I may use that. But I won’t put that on until I see this market start to crack to the down side. If the bull roars in the broader market, SBUX is probably continuing it’s bull move, and we’ll have to look for short plays later. I like butterflies “early” because of their much lower cost, and spreads “late” when moves start to get confirmed.
8/27/19 7:22am PDT: Here’s my Elliott wave count for TLT. Certainly there is some uncertainty re: the final minor 4 and “is it complete?”. I show my Fibonacci fitted target that I generated roughly four weeks ago, when I put on that butterfly shown for Sept 20. Looking good at this point (it is in the black, but with a butterfly that can change fast!). One could absolutely still make this trade (just lower profit relative to cost now vs. buying it four weeks ago when TLT was much lower).
ALERTS for Monday 8/26/19
CSCO may have completed a massive corrective expanding flat off it’s high in April. We want to watch for the development of bottom structure and a break to the upside here in CSCO, as it appears a 5 wave C down may be complete or very close to it if not. A low at the 76-78% Fibonacci levels (a price of about 44) to complete the 5 wave is a likely scenario.
ALERTS for Thursday 8/22/19
Once again, I think OMCL is well set up and now it’s breaking up off the lower channel line.
ALERTS for Tuesday 8/20/19
8/20/19 12:50pm PDT: PAAS looks very bullish to me. I’ve taken a position with a stop just under 16.00.
8/20/19 12:28pm PDT: AMGN is in the midst of a minor 4 correction, and should be well set up for a long trade in perhaps a day or two.
8/20/19 12:25pm PDT: LVS has turned off the 78.6% retrace level and is about to trigger to the long side.
8/20/19 9:38am PDT: ZEN is well set up now for a long. The monthly trend in ZEN is still “up”. Despite appearances, this would be a “with the trend” trade.
8/20/19 8:21am PDT: MSFT has cracked a correction down trend line and is poised for significant upward movement. I am long here now.
8/20/19 7:52am PDT: NFLX is setting up very nicely on top of a 61.8%. NFLX has a history of retracing to big 61.8% levels and swinging the other way. The bottom structure in development appears to be an inverse head&shoulders. A speculative buy on a turn at the hour/5min time frames above the 290 level, with a stop just below the 290 level, is one approach. Another is to wait for price to break the pair of highs at 316.43 or so. NFLX will move with the market; if you are bearish the market, this would be a bad play! I am reasonably bullish this market, and believe the little corrective action today is simply a lower degree ii wave down, creating this kind of set up in a lot of stocks.
ALERTS for Monday 8/19/19
8/19/19 10:12am PDT: There are an awful lot of good set ups. UNP, PYPL, QCOM. Here’s LVS, still neutral at the monthly time frame, and turning back up off a 78% Fibonacci level.
8/18/19 7:58am PDT: Note that INTC has triggered long this morning, as described below on Friday. UNP, TWST, PYPL, QCOM. I even bought some CSCO, as it appears a C (5 wave move) down, completing a very large ABC correction, is complete and there’s a solid turn.
8/18/19 7:56am PDT: TLT is of course going crazy to the upside. Here’s my Elliott wave count of it, and the butterfly that I put on about two weeks ago. My Fibonacci fitted target created that same time is shown (actually target #2, lower targets have been surpassed already). The minor 4 wave seems to be in progress. There is opportunity to go long this market off this minor 4, in my opinion.
ALERTS for Friday 8/16/19
8/16/19 8:08am PDT: INTC, while at a very high timeframe (quarterly, monthly) is merely going sideways, is very low in it’s range and turning with nice double bottom structure off the 76-78% retrace level. Excellent set up. A break above 47.1 would be a good buy trigger.
8/16/19 7:36am PDT: SAH, GH, and BPMC are in excellent set ups. Be aware however that the likelihood is high the market is in a corrective bounce upward, and will suffer some significant selling next week.
ALERTS for Thursday 8/15/19
8/15/19 12:11pm PDT: AAPL is reasonably set up to the long side, with a turn in development off of (very close to) the lower volatility band (in purplse).
8/15/19 12:11pm PDT: NMIH is well set up to the long side. Again, passing on long trades while the MarketState for all the big averages is DOWN TREND is reasonable. Most stocks move with the averages. So caution is wise.
8/15/19 11:41am PDT: MSFT continues to set up to the long side. Caution is warranted due to the overall market state clearing being “down trend”. But if the market starts to show any strength and MSFT breaks above the pivot high (neckline of the double bottom) shown…it’s a very reasonable buy with a very close stop; it’s a high leverage buy set up.
ALERTS for Wednesday 8/14/19
8/14/19 10:38am: I really like MSFT to the long side with this big sell off. MSFT is largely a cloud service provider (re: growth business) now. Won’t be harmed by China issues. Should recover nicely from this low.
ALERTS for Tuesday 8/13/19
8/13/19 12:27pm: OKTA is well set up and breaking to the upside, good buy trigger at the hourly swing high at 134.20.
ALERTS for Monday 8/12/19
8/12/19 7:48am PDT: CASH is setting up nicely for a long. Two hits on the 50% and a double bottom structure. Steepest trend line broken. If/when the second TL is broken, that could be a buy trigger. Or, more conservatively, breaking the the big hourly reversal bar at it’s high at 30 would be another.
8/12/19 7:00am PDT: I’ve Elliott wave modeled AMGN for about the last 6 months, through an long drawn out correction. Finally my work paid off last Friday as I was in position for the launch of a 3 of a 3. Stalking a play isn’t just a matter of spending a few hours and putting on a trade! Sometimes it’s a matter of months of attenton.
8/12/19 6:52am PDT: SPX and RUT cracked below key support levels; see the Markets-SP500 and Markets->RUT pages for the analyses from last night. Update 7:20am: SPX has turned off the lower channel line instead of pushing down below it, and Advance/Decline numbers are rapidly improving. It appears possible that the minute iv wave executed a minuette c down to complete here, and now a minute v up is launching. They key is of course holding above that lower channel line.
ALERTS for Friday 8/12/2019
8/12/19 7:00am PDT: I’ve been tracking and publishing here about AMGN for awhile (see 8/1/19 Alerts below for the last update), with a count extending back about a year. “And now this…”. I could help but take my profits on my buy down in the 2 wave towards this high of this blast off of a minor 3 up. No good set up now, sorry.
8/9/19 9:57am PDT: PBH looks very good. Market appears to be turning back up; good time to jump on some of these strong momentum stocks that are a bit beaten down!
8/9/19 7:15am PDT: GOL, AVGO and WLH are set ups I like right now.
ALERTS for Thursday 8/8/2019
8/8/19 8:52am PDT: CRON announced earnings pre-market today. Gap up then sell off. But overall, CRON is squatting on a major 61.8% level and slowly but surely building a very nice bottom turn structure. To early to get aboard quite yet, as there are no triggers, but that can change quickly. This is a SHOCKINGLY high volatility stock, at about 7% (by comparison, NFLX is about 2.7%; these are finviz.com volatility figures). So it’s extremely high leverage, and any buys should be properly scaled based on your absolute $ maximum risk. The monthly is still in an up trend.
8/8/19 8:52am PDT: OMCL has executed a major correction but is still in an uptrend at the monthly time frame, and has turned back up off a longer term trend line. This monthly, weekly, daily, hourly clockwise from top left.
8/8/19 8:37am PDT: ZEN has executed a major correction but is still in an uptrend at the monthly time frame, and is showing nice bottom turn structure. This monthly, weekly, daily, hourly clockwise from top left.
8/8/19 7:26am PDT: CF is breaking it’s small correction and triggering to the long side. Others include PBH, CRUS, CHGG, FSS, INT.
8/8/19 7:19am PDT: SPX is giving good bullish signals. That said, there is a very significant possibility price is now in an X wave of an overall WXY intermediate 2 correction (see the alternate count across the bottom).
8/8/19 6:23am PDT: RUT is about to trigger long on open with a double bottom structure and neckline break to the upside.
ALERTS for Wednesday 8/7/2019
8/7/19 9:58am PDT:Re: the SPX update below, SPX has cracked above the blue neckline. Nice bullish model confirming signal and maybe a buy trigger for some. Over nights moves though have been large and most recently strongly down; it may be best to wait for tomorrow’s open first and see what’s up. This could absolutely be yet another weak bounce “head fake”. Also, more backing and filling in this consolidation zone price has been in is also quite likely.
8/7/19 9:58am PDT: TLT (20 year bonds ETF) is going crazy to the upside. And I think it has even more room to run. Here’s one model of what’s up. A slight derivative of this is to call the minor 3 complete where the minute iii finished, and everything after the minor 5. However, that doesn’t really change the fact that a motive wave up is in progress, is probably still in it’s 3 wave, and a 4 and 5 are likely. Price is now past (slightly) a Fibonacci fitted target, and with the incomplete motive wave up, the next target up becomes likely. I’ve put on a butterfly at 150 for Sept (which might be “late” but doing mid-late August is problematic re: the weekly options market which is thin this far away from the current price action).
8/7/19 7:00am PDT: Here’s a bullish way of modeling the SPX downward action this morning. Note that this assumes a simple zigzag (nearly complete) for the intermediate 2. However, since it is a 3 wave structure…it could the W let of a WXY larger combination. An even more bullish take would be to call the C down complete where the minute iii here finished, the action since an initial minuette i and ii.
ALERTS for Tuesday 8/6/2019
8/6/19 11:28am PDT: SPX broke it’s down channel line and a prior pivot and for short term traders is looking strong. It may (likely?) be merely a B or X wave initiating however, so don’t get too enamored of it.
8/6/19 10:57am PDT:I like the immediate set up on RUT. This is hourly. Nice bottom structure, sequence of down trend line breaks, and a very close by swing low to serve as a low risk stop. It may not go far to the upside, but I do expect at least some.
ALERTS for Monday 8/5/2019
8/5/19 7:16am PDT: Hard to find a single stock going up today! But when I found one…I liked it immediately and bought it! So check PI. (Chart coming later.)
8/4/19 7:38pm PDT: The SP500 futures market (/ES) overnight is moving down sharply. The key 38.2% level referenced in last weeks alerts is breached. On the chart below are 3 symmetric projections of the prior correction of similar size. An ultimate low of around 2900 is certainly one possibility, as there is lots of previous pivot high support between 2894 and 2911. That target is likely to be the zone price opens at in the morning. If 2894 is broken to the downside, the next target zone is between the smaller of the symmetric moves and the 61.8%: that’s the range from 2867 to 2844. If THAT range is broken through, the next is the 76-78% Fibonacci zone which is precisely where the largest symmetric projection points. This is basically the 2800 level.
Of course there is a probability that this is a larger correction than an intermediate 2 and the 100% retrace level will be broken, but at this time there is no significant evidence supporting that. By far the most significant result here is a turn somewhere in the shadow of the immediately prior intermediate 1 (not show on this chart).
ALERTS for Friday 8/2/2019
8/2/19 10:10am PDT: Here’s an updated Elliott wave count for RUT, including a more bearish alternative underneath. The bull case lives…but is on life support?
8:00am PDT: Obviously the inability of the Trump administration to negotiate successfully with the Chinese is at least temporarily hammering the market. That said, this is an intermediate 2 wave down and should complete and turn back up before penetrating the SPX low at 2729 (though I acknowledge that’s “a long ways down there”!). There is a somewhat low probability the correction is complete, as at the moment we have a turn of a 38.2% retrace level. But 2’s tend to be deep. The 61.8% level would take price down to 2844-ish and the 76-78% level would be just about 2800.
ALERTS for Thursday 8/1/2019
7:57am PDT: I’ve been tracking AMGN through it’s large and long correction for many months. It appears complete and a new motive wave up may have launched. If correct, AMGN is going to be going up an awful lot over the next year plus.
6:45am PDT: ATHM is still UP on the monthly after a massive pullback and now a turn off the 76-78% Fibonacci retrace level zone. I like this buy right now, a lot.
ALERTS for Thursday 7/31/2019
Alert 7/31/2019 12:55pm PDT:SPX took a big bounce down (and much but not all of the way back up) today after the Fed announcement just “met expectations” (for a 1/4 pt. rate drop). This is my bullish count for the daily timeframe in SPX. A more bearish count (not shown) would have the intermediate 1 complete, and an intermediate 2 starting up here that could take prices down close to the 2900 level. If the low today gets violated…watch out below. (This chart also shows the positioning of a trade I have on, a SPY butterfly around the price/time area marked with a gray oval).
Alert 7/31/2019 12:15pm PDT: ZEN announced earnings and the price dropped over 2%. However, earnings were generally strong and at or over expectations, and guidance is strong too. Below is the 4 time frame view showing monthly, weekly, daily and hourly price charts (clockwise from top left). A set up for a buy is present, with triggers just above the current price (I like > 85.17, but more conservative would be to wait for > 85.53, the higher of recent pivot highs). The turn should it occur would be right on overlapped 61.8% and 21-23% Fibonacci retrace levels.
Alert 7/31/2019 7:12am PDT:Bitcoin (I trade GBTC) is breaking back to the upside and well set up for a buy.
Alert 7/31/2019 7:00 am PDT: ANET looks very good to the upside here. I was already in (and in the red); I decided to add another 33% to my position here. This is monthly, weekly, daily, hour, clockwise from the top left.
Alert 7/31/2019 6:38am PDT: RUT continues to be strong. Here is a high payoff trade using a broken wing butterfly in IWM targeting as much as 6x return on investment.
Alert 7/30/2019 4:51pm PDT: See Trade Examples for all July results (though 7/30).
Alert 7/30/2019 4:51pm PDT: I’m watching carefully to identify bullish set ups on stocks that have just announced earnings. The set ups I see right away are in IQV, COWN, and OMCL. (Full disclosure, I own COWN and OMCL, but not yet IQV).
Alert 7/30/19 3:18pm PDT: ATRO may have completed it’s sell off. While it hasn’t turned of a Fibonacci level, there is a little inverse head and shoulders in place. I like a buy above this very tight neckline, and a quick risk off sale at about +2-3% of 1/2 the position, coupled with a move of stop to a net break even or better. There’s there potential lots and lots more for the second 1/2 of the position. This is monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly, clockwise from top left. Note that both monthly and weekly trends are still up (blue colored candles). The daily are down, and the hourly have moved from strong down (red) to mild down (orange). Breaking the neckline will likely shift hourly trend to up, and then daily should follow.
ALERTS for Wednesday 7/30/2019
7/30/2019: RUT appears to have finished another 1-2 sequence and is now deeply nested in about five levels of “3”.
ALERTS for Thursday 7/25/2019
ALERT 8:35am PDT: RUT is pulling back in subminuette ii wave and should within hours be turning back up for form yet more nested 3 of 3 action (see video below for the overall Elliott wave count).
Alerts for Wednesday 7/24/201
ALERT 9:28am PDT: PCRX is breaking back to the upside. Weekly MVTrend is neutral, and there is strong turn off the 78.6%. Daily MVTrend has climbed back to neutral with a gap up day, and the hourly MVTrend is strong up.
ALERT 8:39am PDT: IBP may have finished several weeks of correction, with a break above the descending trend line on the hourly/daily chart, and a turn off overlapped 61.8%, 50%, and 100% Fibonacci levels.
ALERT 7:04am PDT: KRNT is set up for a fresh move to the upside. Here’s the monthly, weekly, daily and hourly view. Note how even the daily never got below a MVTrend state of neutral, and now the hourly has kicked back to “strong up”. I expect and up trend to migrate upward through these time frames now.
ALERT 6:56am PDT: ATRO is in a weekly uptrend and a pullback to a double bottom at a 38.2% Fibonacci level. Possible turning now, some bottom structure in place. I like the 38.6 level as a buy trigger.
ALERT 6:48am PDT: AMD is rockin’ to the upside; I alerted everyone to this breaking to the upside yesterday (and got on board myself).
ALERT 6:43am PDT: MCK has broken it’s 7 day down trend with a trend line break at the hourly level, after a perfect hit and turn off a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. The Elliott wave count on MCK indicates that a minute v should be initiating here in the upward direction.
ALERTS for Tuesday 7/23/19
Update 12:42pm PDT: AMD!!! Breaking to the upside out of it’s consolidation.
Update 12:38pm PDT: IBP is well pulled back and perhaps forming a base on top of overlapped Fibonacci levels. Watch for break of the trend line and the two pivot levels marked. This could be a very quick 6-14% gainer. 52.8 to 59.5 is possible.
Update 12:22pm PDT: JD is breaking strongly to the upside; see below.
Update 12:18pm PDT: RUT has now formed a complete inverse head & shoulder’s bottom on the hourly chart, broken the neckline, and is close to breaking the down trend line and the next higher pivot high resistance. A break of the neckline was a good buy; more conservative would be the break of both the trend line and the next pivot resistance line.
Update 11:52am PDT: The stocks I’m monitoring very close at the moment for possible shifts from “approaching set up” to “fully set up” and then “triggering” (a buy) are the following: SBGI, IBB, NTRA, STNG, NOW. All are in nice pullbacks and getting close to where they may be ready to resume their primary trends up.
Update 10:46amPDT: SAGE looks very good on its touch and turn off a lower trend line on the hourly/daily chart (hourly is below). Also over the 61.8%, and the line down I have earlier on the chart is a projection of an earlier down move, showing the symmetry with the most recent down move.
Update 10:14am: JD on the daily/weekly has consolidated under a longer term resistance level at a 38.2% Fibonacci level. A break up and through could/should run the price up on JD significantly. Excellent set up, the trigger is the break of the highest recent swing high.
Update 9:56am: ECL has been a monster stock since December 2018. It’s executed a little correction on the daily chart, forming an “ascending triangle”. Classically, this is a structure that is expected to have a price break up and out, continuing the very strong weekly and monthly trend in ECL. Buying a break above the upper resistance pivot line is what I will do.
Update 8:44am PDT: ATHM may have finally bottomed and initiated a turn back up off the 76-78% retrace zone. The monthly time frame MVtrend is up. This shows monthly, weekly, hourly, daily.
Update 8:28am PDT: CHRS is breaking strongly back to the upside after a major retracement. I’ve already taken 3% profit on 1/2 my position, and am letting the 2nd half ride for a much larger gain.
Update 8:25am PDT: OZM has turned off a 61.8 with a double bottom structure, has broken the neckline and the turn is also off the long term trend line. An excellent set up and trigger here.
Update 7:50amPDT : JBL is in an MVTrend state of “up” at the monthly and weekly levels, and is in a pullback at the daily time frame, with a bottoming inverse head&shoulders structure forming on the hourly. A break above the recent pivot highs on the hourly would incrementally signal more and more confidence a bottom is complete here.
While we have an intermediate 2 down call from Lara Iriarte, the price action so far today is not tracking to that strong. SPX is pushing back up again, and for Lara’s call to play out, this push up is a 3rd nested 2 wave. I’m a bit doubtful, but if correct, watch for the neckline break on this head and shoulders pattern developing, shown here in the /ES 4 hour chart. If that neckline breaks, a short is a Very Good Idea. The line down is the “measuring distance” that indicates where such a H&S pattern is likely to end up bottoming.
ALERTS for Monday 7/22/2019
10:41am PDT: DIN is set up and a trigger level is just overhead. Inverse head&shoulders bottom, combined neckline and trend line break approaching with price over 96.7.
10:14am PDT: SPX has now triggered to long side, possibly re-initiating motive wave action in line with the higher time frame trends.
9:58am PDT: SPX has triggering to the long side now.
9:13am PDT: SPX is now showing at triple bottom, and keeps breaking weaker and weaker down trend lines (showing slowing downward momentum). If the recent pivot high resistance can be broken, and the last (?) down trend line, this market may get some upside action today. But going deeper here is still a possibility of course.
8:59am PDT: RUT has tagged and initiated a turn off a 61.8% Fibonacci level, possibly (??) completing a 2 down. I’ve bought .84 delta call options for late August, but will exit with a small loss the moment the low today is violated. I will NOT ride this trade down! Up or out.
8:31am PDT: here’s an updated/alternative model for the SPX action. This models the move off the recent all time high as a combination W-X-Y in progress, with price coming down in the final Y leg. Two likely targets: 2971, with a double bottom structure (and maybe it’s not a combination but rather a flat correction), and 2960, where W = Y and Y ends at the 127% extension of W.
7:46am PDT: I continue to see AMD in the early stages of a new motive wave upward. My model shows an intermediate 1 and 2 complete, and a minor 1 and now minor 2. As the minor 2 completes and turns into a minor 3 up on the hourly, a good long trade should set up. Here’s daily chart showing the overall set up.
7:33am PDT: AMD is breaking back to the upside, renewing it’s bull trend. If AMD breaks out of it’s top structure, it could rip over the next new few weeks and months.
Premarket: The minor 2 correction underway in SPX (and /ES) may be reaching it’s end stage. It is now well modeled as an ABC zigzag down, with the C wave underway. The set up “perfect” in that if C = A it will terminate at exactly the 1.27% extension of A, a classic shallow zigzag correction end point. The chart below is the E-mini futures market including overnight data in gray. The futures market drives the cash market in many respects, and the overall chart structure is sometimes more apparent at the hourly time frame with the overnight price action. While it is relatively thin volume, there has been very significant overnight price action recently.
Premarket: PNFP is breaking up and out of a completed Elliott wave triangle. It has just initiated what will likely be a fairly shallow correction and that should present an excellent set up for a buy. The daily MVTrend is strong up, the weekly is neutral with with a large outside range up candlestick for July. The monthly MVTrend is still down but all the indications are that an up trend state is migrating up through the time frames here. Wait for a completed pullback and turn to enter.
ALERTS for Friday 7/19/2019
Update 11:06am PDT: MCK set up has triggered. Excellent trade opportunity!
Update 10:41am PDT: It appears that the corrective ii wave is not complete yet, and is executing what may be a flat, with a and b complete. c down here just initiated and should be a 5 wave move, and it may take price down to the 61.8% (2986) or perhaps down to the 76-78% (2980) area. I still see this as the early stages of a new motive wave up; no reason yet to view that anything but the highest probability going forward.
Update 8:57am PDT: I bought VYGR on the initiation of the break upward yesterday, and took profit first thing this morning (I always have a standing limit sell for a profit in the market). I will buy again when the current retrace on the 5 minute chart completes! Lots of opportunity to milk VYGR I think. This is monthly/weekly/daily/hourly, clockwise form the top left.
Update 8:26am PDT: I really like the set up in DIN. Watch for bottom structure and a neckline break at the 5 min level, and/or watch for the down trend line break.
Update 7:48am PDT: The combination of a modeled ABC down followed now by strongly impulsive action with a completed 5 wave move up off the trend line gives us great probabilities that a new motive wave up has started, and the little ii correction is now complete (vs. the new upward action being a head fake B or X wave).
ALERTS for Thursday 7/18/2019
12:53pm PDT: VYGR is very close to triggering in long. Pullback to 61.8% and a turn, broken two necklines already off a double bottom, but the down trend line is not busted yet. I’ve entered already, at 24.62. Waiting for the new pullback initiating on the 5 minute to turn and trigger would be a fine play. This is weekly, daily, hourly, 5 min, clockwise from top left.
12:28pm PDT: CHRS is well set up, with a 38% retrace almost complete after the weekly turned and dropped on a 50%. An inverse H&S bottom is in process. The charts are weekly, daily, hourly, 5min, clockwise from top left. I’d say buy on a stop above 18.23 or so. It may continue to break down here though. On a buy I’d say very tight stop, the drop in the Fall of ’18 shows this stock can tank over time, so let’s get out quick if this set up doesn’t play out.
12:16pm PDT: Obviously SPX broke bullish symmetry and necklines and the best bet is that a ii wave is complete and a iii of a [iii] of a iii of a (3) is launching here. We’ll see!
12:15pm PDT: DIN appears to be complete with a big ABC. Nice set up, deep low buy. Bought 93.94.
11:01am PDT: Did I mention LHCG? I should have. Great buy a but earlier; it’s up 1% already. But VERY buy-able on a little pullback.
9::41am PDT: if SPX gets above 2983.6, bullish symmetry through this overall down move is broken, and the odds that it is a completed ABC ii wave down increases substantially. If that occurs, the buy will be after the first pullback and the push up through recent pivots highs. Watch for inverted head&shoulders structure or a distorted bottom structure, and then a neckline break.
9:11am PDT: NTRA has broken it’s inverse head/shoulders neckline to the upside and has triggered if you aren’t already in.NOTE: I will be on vacation on Friday, 7/18.
9:10am PDT: SAGE is breaking to the upside! Great buy set up, check it out
Here’s MCK. Awesome clean Elliott wave count on this. Bounce and turn (??) off a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level and the established trend line. An excellent set up. Price above the current daily bar is a buy.
The move down continuing this morning is either an almost complete ii down…or an almost complete A of a ii down. Here’s the count for the latter, which is more likely. However, if we get yet another kick back correction up and another push down to new lows, that would make this an extended 5 wave move down, and we’d expect the move up to be a weak B, followed by a C that could take the market much deeper, perhaps to 2900 even. So stay nimble, and stay on top of this count.
ALERTS for Wednesday 7/17/2019
GLD is breaking to the upside after a triangle type structure (a classic bull flag). My Fibonacci fitted targets are shown above (black lines), and the 1.27 and 1.62 extensions of the swing to the triangle high. I’ve bought a butterfly over the gray area, using a 137/139/141 spread (buy one each of the end points for every 2 sold in the middle). Super cheap at $17/butterfly, and in the extreme profit case (rarely happens but…) it’s a return of $170/fly. The point here is that our probability knowledge of the future of GLD makes this bet highly +EV, even if the odds of a positive payoff at all is only perhaps 50%. In the “lose money” scenarios, I should lose less than half my cost per fly (I’ll bail long before I lose it all should GLD move against me).
AMGN is moving up nicely. This hourly chart shows the ABC correction, the break of the down trend line, the break now of bottom structure neckline, as well as my buy point and my open limit sell price point. My stop is now just above break even, free trade time!
Why do I like working high momentum bullish stocks for quick and small (3%) profits? The idea is to maximize the flow of INCOME into my trading account over TIME. Waiting for a 6, 10, or 18% move might takes many weeks, even months. Meanwhile the market goes up and down, up and down. I like to get in and take profit on every up…and repeat after the next down! Here’s an example from EXP, where I bought and sold in 2 days…and now the down is here. And right after that, BZUN, which has tanked after my taking a 3% profit near the highs. Almost time for a rebuy there…
Here’s my latest current RUT Elliott wave count. Price continues in the minuette 2 sideways and down. When it finally finishes, there “should” be high momentum price action to the upside. The alternate count is across the bottom indicating that a larger correction (a combination) might be in play.
By the way, the black dots represent a squeeze state, of a new and custom squeeze (Bollinger bands inside the Keltner channel, indicating a period of relatively low volatility with high potential for range expansion) indicator. Striving for more sensitivity and accuracy vs. the generic squeeze indicator on the market.
Here’s the bigger Elliott wave view of RUT. Obviously, this is a bullish count. Some want to switch to a bearish count after the high on this chart; I don’t buy it, given the broader market situation when strongly indicates bullish conditions for at least the next 6 months, and likely next several years.
ALERTS for Tuesday 7/16/2019
RUT continues it’s big sideways action, for weeks now. Below are daily bars. I’m working on a vastly superior squeeze indicator to both the standard indicator out there (originally defined by John Carter in his textbook “Mastering the Trade”), as well as to his new “squeeze pro” indicator ($$!!). Below is one very interesting attempt, that is showing some excellent squeeze (low volatility) points on the chart which are just about universally followed quickly by some significant price action, which is exactly what the squeeze is meant to point out. These settings may be excellent for RUT though and awful for BLUE for example. Which is why I’m working on a dynamic (adaptive) version of the squeeze indicator. But first, I want a “best possible” baseline and I’m not very impressed with the squeeze parameters as defined and deployed by Carter and hence everyone. Here’s my latest try on RUT daily.
In line with my general philosophy of minimal chart clutter (sorry but Fibonacci levels aren’t clutter to me, lol!), I just use black dots on/inside the candlestick to identify a squeeze state.
Bought NTRA on it’s pullback and turn off a 76.8% Fibonacci level. Here’s my buy point and target (limit sell in place).
Had a break even exit in IIPR, so I shoved that money back in on CUB. Here’s the multi-timeframe view (monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, top left clockwise).
Bought MDCO on the turn back up on the hourly chart. Here’s a multi-time frame view of the MDCO set up. Monthly, weekly, daily, hourly starting top left and proceeding clockwise.
SAGE is pulling back sharply after yet another strong move up over the last week. This stock is in a massive uptrend at the weekly/monthly time frames. The daily is still showing an up trend even as it pulls back. The 61.8% retrace level of the move over the last week is being approached. GREAT SET UP setting up here! But “nyet”, we want to see a bottom form on the 5 minute chart. Right now the momentum is still sharply down.
I just bought AMGN. My Elliott wave count overall has this completing a 2 down at the bottom of the ABC shown. And it’s turned off the 61.8%. A nice set up, but perhaps I’m a little early and should have waited for the prior pivot high to be broken?
I just bought small caps, as I like the move back upward in the long range it’s been cycling in, and I believe will break eventually upward. This is in RUT. But to get a small cap instrument with good price volatility (over 3%), I’m using TNA, a 3x leveraged small cap fund. Not for long term investment! But fine for short term trades like this.
NOTE: it’s an hour later, I’m up about 1% in TNA, and I’ve advanced by stop from it’s initial -15% placement to just over break even. BOOM!! I’m “safe” (relatively speaking), and it’s a “free trade” now up to my target of 3%…or an exit for a few $ profit “scratch trade”. This is how I roll: deep stops to start…then aggressive protection once I get into the black a bit. And a little bit later…out at break even (okay, a few $’s profit). A nice trade! Any exit with all the money intact is a good exit.
ALTR is breaking to the upside after another retrace in it’s long bull run. A buy above 41.61 is a buy above the neckline of a structured bottom turn.
PANW has broken back to the upside off trend line support and pivot support from way back. I bought already at the break of the first neckline pivot (lower blue line). As it breaks the 38.2%, I will add. I’m looking for price to go up to the 61.8% level and I cash.
MEDP has finally broken it’s descending trend line on the hourly and is an excellent buy at this moment. (Remember, all my advice is for EDUCATION and ENTERTAINMENT only, you trade strictly at your own risk making your own informed decisions; I am not a certified investment advisor).
GLD is riding a significant daily time frame trend line, and has done a triangle structure on top of it. Canon is that price will break up and out of the triangle. But it could go the other way; either way, it’s likely to develop some legs and run. A vertical spread in the appropriate direction on break is a nice way to trade this.
CYBR was identified on 7/12 as setting up for a break out of a big triangle on the daily chart. BOOM!!!! Look at it rip.
SPX is in a wide consistent channel, and close to the upper channel line. A symmetric move back down to the lower line appears quite possible here, as diagrammed. However, be aware: the wave count calls for more upside here, as there is a highly nested set of 3 waves currently in the most probable count. That would tend to indicate some coming ripping to the upside, tracking one of the two up trend lines shown here. So be nimble!
RUT’s most likely wave count is strongly bullish, as shown on the chart. However, confirmation is required: the neckline as marked must be exceeded to initiate a new impulse up and trigger a buy. There is an ALTERNATE short term bearish count here, shown across the bottom of the chart.
ALERTS for Monday 7/15/2019
PCTY is launching a minor 3 of an intermediate 3, after executing a leading diagonal intermediate 1. There should be very significant upside momentum in price in the immediate future. This stock is a buy on prices above the immediate high at 105.63.
MTCH is launching a minor 5 wave after a flat minor for completed early July. The 5 should extend 15 points or more from the breakout level of 75.
WLH has completed a large 4 and is in a huge weekly/monthly up trend. The breakout buy level is 19.85, I’d say buy over 20.
My general trading advice for these types of high volatility stock plays: first, USE A DEEP STOP. I prefer 15%. Take very rare stop exits. If price moves against you, let it ride. Second, once there is a > 1.5% gain, advance your stop to just over break even. At 3% gain, take 1/2 of your position profit. With the remainder, try to ride up the appropriate minor or even intermediate degree wave, using Elliott wave modeling to guide your incremental stop placement. A third exit model: exit 1/3 of the position at 1.5% profit, exit the second 1/3 position at 3% profit, and ride the final 1/3 up the wave structure.
One model of what’s up right now with SPX and /ES (one and the same mostly; arguably, /ES is the nose of the dog) is a leading diagonal minor 1, followed by a minor 2 down, and now a minor 3 up launching, similar to PCTY. In general, SPX is in an extremely bullish Elliott wave count position, a very rare set of 4 nested degrees of 3 waves.
ALERTS for Friday 7/12/2019
CYBR is breaking out of a 6 week long Elliott wave triangle to the upside. Great buy spot at 133.7 now.
AAXN has bottom and turned with structure and broken a key neckline. Also a great set up to the long side.