MVTI

MVTI (“Morgan Visual Trend Indicator”) is a unique visual indicator of five levels of price trend: strong down, (mild) down, neutral, (mild) up, strong up.  Because the term “trend” has a generic meaning, I use the term MVTrend to refer specifically the trend state as measured by MVTI.

MVTrend state at the time frame of the chart is encoded via candlestick coloring.  This provides the trader with the ability to review trend state across multiple time frames (via different time frame charts in a chart panel) virtually instantly.

Here is an example multi-time frame chart panel of AAPL.

AAPL_MTF_TS

The charts are ordered clockwise starting at the top left: monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly.  The monthly chart shows AAPL churning for eight months of neutral MVTrend.  The weekly chart shows the most recent 18 months worth of weekly price candlesticks.  We can see how MVTrend at this time frame went through “full evolution” (strong down to strong up and back again) as price oscillated at the monthly time frame in neutral state.  As can be seen from some of the deeper pullbacks on the weekly chart, trend state is not necessarily predictive of immediately following price action: like all indicators, it is trailing indicator.  The daily chart price rise starting at 6/3/2019 is an excellent example of a V-bottom.  Note how the MVTrend quickly shifts up from strong down to mild down to neutral to mild up to strong up.  It does this while the corresponding weekly time frame candlestick is still showing neutral trend.  We are exposed visually to the incremental establishment of new trend state from the lowest time frames up through the higher. This aids us in anticipating (in conjunction with our other tools) and assesses the probability of continuation of price trend change at whatever time frame is of trading interest to us.

MVTI is composed using both all three components of DMI (ADX, +DI, -DI) and CCI.  The TASC article reviews these in some detail, or you can find description of these indicators on line.  They are what I call “quantitative trend indicators”, in that price structure has no bearing on the measurement techniques used for both; only price movement is of significance.  Thus, MVTI is itself a quantitative trend indicator.

MVTI breaks down to first determining MVTrend by the DMI components, then refines that assessment using CCI.  When +DI and -DI cross, MVTrend shifts to neutral.  If and when ADX begins rising after a cross, MVTrend shifts to up (+DI above -DI) or down (-DI above +DI).  CCI over 100 shifts MVTrendto strong up, and CCI under -100 shifts MVTrend to strong down.  Note: this is the TASC version of MVTI.  The version currently shared under the name MVTI on Thinkorswim has one very subtle refinement.  CCI over 100 always shifts MVTrend to strong up (even if assessed by DMI as neutral), and CCI under -100 always shifts MVTrend to strong down (even if assessed by DMI as neutral).  This increases sensitivity in rare cases.