Bonds (TLT)

Update 02/25/20 8:09am PST: Here’s a monthly TLT chart.  I’ve projected the last 3 big swings over the last 12 years onto the current massive bull swing that launched end of 2018.  Note the price is now very much in the zone of the likely top per symmetry (which doesn’t guarantee a turn…but markets love symmetry!).  So I think it is very much the time to be watching for a possible turn at the weekly time frame in bonds, and then an opportunity to short for a reasonable size correction back down.

Update 01/15/20 7:34am: Bonds (TLT) may have finally completed a long and deep 4 wave correction down.  Price has formed good bottom structure, with two sequential higher pivot lows, modeled below as a sequence of 1-2 waves.  Price has just broken the down channel to the upside.  Two necklines are overhead.  One might play this with short term bullish spreads (sell a put spread or buy a call spread), another is to target a price/time zone overhead and place a very cheap butterfly.  I rather like that approach here myself.  Overall, the count looks pretty solid, but it’s still possible that the corrective 4 is in fact continue and prices will drop back down “into the muck”.

Update: I’ve put on a butterfly in TLT for 1/31 expiry, 141/142.5/144.  Cost (max risk) is $20 per ‘fly, max profit is about $118 per ‘fly.


Update 10/18/19 10:12am: Much too long since my last TLT update.  I have TLT in a large minor 4 correction, still incomplete.  Showing it here as a flat, but it could very well continue on as a triangle (it has that look, with turns at the 76-78% retrace level going down, the again at the 21-23% level going back up).  The adventurous could drop a short term butterfly centered near the middle of it all.


Update 9/25/19 10:35am: Bonds have broken out of it’s up channel, and possibly starting up a consolidation triangle.


Update 9/5/19 9:47am: TLT has broken down and here’s the very likely wave count.  Price now in a minor 4 down.  Further downward movement is expected to complete this 4.