Bonds (TLT)

Update 01/15/20 7:34am: Bonds (TLT) may have finally completed a long and deep 4 wave correction down.  Price has formed good bottom structure, with two sequential higher pivot lows, modeled below as a sequence of 1-2 waves.  Price has just broken the down channel to the upside.  Two necklines are overhead.  One might play this with short term bullish spreads (sell a put spread or buy a call spread), another is to target a price/time zone overhead and place a very cheap butterfly.  I rather like that approach here myself.  Overall, the count looks pretty solid, but it’s still possible that the corrective 4 is in fact continue and prices will drop back down “into the muck”.

Update: I’ve put on a butterfly in TLT for 1/31 expiry, 141/142.5/144.  Cost (max risk) is $20 per ‘fly, max profit is about $118 per ‘fly.


Update 10/18/19 10:12am: Much too long since my last TLT update.  I have TLT in a large minor 4 correction, still incomplete.  Showing it here as a flat, but it could very well continue on as a triangle (it has that look, with turns at the 76-78% retrace level going down, the again at the 21-23% level going back up).  The adventurous could drop a short term butterfly centered near the middle of it all.


Update 9/25/19 10:35am: Bonds have broken out of it’s up channel, and possibly starting up a consolidation triangle.


Update 9/5/19 9:47am: TLT has broken down and here’s the very likely wave count.  Price now in a minor 4 down.  Further downward movement is expected to complete this 4.